If Barack Obama wins the Presidency tonight, he will have a fundamental governing choice-to govern "smart left" or "dumb left."
If he moves to the "smart left" next year, he can rewrite the American Social Contract, i.e. he can reinvigorate and reestablish the moral obligations that government has to its citizens on the economy, energy, health care, education, and national defense-all areas that have been blatantly abused or ignored under the Bush Administration.
If he moves to the "dumb left" next year, however, with capitulation to interest groups and special interests, coupled with rookie stupidity and ridiculous blunders in the area of foreign policy, he will resurrect the image of Democrats as poor on defense issues and as slaves of pressure groups with no new workable ideas.
Historian Arthur Schlesinger, Jr. once enunciated a theory of historical cycles, and that theory is still valuable today. In it, he postulated that major political philosophical shifts occur roughly every 30 years in American History. We moved in this country from the Progressive era at the dawn of the 20th Century to the laissez-faire 1920s to the New Deal to the Reagan Revolution. The modern conservative political era can be said to have started in 1978 when U.S. Congressman William Steiger won approval for a legislative proposal that cut capital gains taxes from 50 percent to 25 percent. If Schlesinger's cyclical theory holds true, we are due for a shift to a progressive political period, because 2008 is exactly 30 years later.
If he is the winner, Barack Obama will have to demonstrate the temperment and nimble dexterity he has exhibited in his campaign if he is to govern effectively from the "smart left". If he fails to do so, the country will once again embrace the center-right politics of the Reagan-Bush I years. If he does govern from the "smart left" by enacting a few positive, big ideas next year, he will have a real opportunity to take America to a new place of policy and solution-oriented governance based on new philosophical paradigms of a progressive nature.
A progressive revival? Perhaps.
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
An Election Where Anything Is Possible
As the voters make their voices heard today, it is important to keep in mind past trends:
1) Five states in the deep South voted for Barry Goldwater, the conservative Republican in 1964, the first time they had voted Republican since Reconstruction.
Those states were Georgia, Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, and South Carolina. In 1968, those five voted for third party candidate George Wallace, and in 1972, they voted for Richard Nixon. In 1976, they voted for Democrat Jimmy Carter of Georgia.
Since then, however, only two of those five have voted Democratic at the presidential level-Georgia for Bill Clinton in 1992, and Louisiana for Bill Clinton in both 1992 and 1996.
2) Mississippi hasn't elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate in the last 61 years.
That man was John Stennis, in 1947. Democratic Gov. Ronnie Musgrove has a chance of unseating the Republican Senate incumbent, Roger Wicker, albeit a slim chance.
3) Seven states with 60 electoral votes have voted Democratic only once since 1964: Alabama, Arizona, Colorado, Mississippi, Montana, North Carolina, and South Carolina. Barack Obama has a chance to carry either Colorado, North Carolina, or both. That would be a political shockwave.
4) Eleven states with 63 electoral votes have not voted Democratic at all since 1964: Alaska, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Utah, Virginia, and Wyoming. As this election begins, Barack Obama is currently competitive in both Virginia and Indiana, which Pres. Bush carried in 2004 by margins of 8.2 and 20.7 percentage points, respectively.
Clearly, in this election season, the only guarantee is that nothing is guaranteed.
1) Five states in the deep South voted for Barry Goldwater, the conservative Republican in 1964, the first time they had voted Republican since Reconstruction.
Those states were Georgia, Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, and South Carolina. In 1968, those five voted for third party candidate George Wallace, and in 1972, they voted for Richard Nixon. In 1976, they voted for Democrat Jimmy Carter of Georgia.
Since then, however, only two of those five have voted Democratic at the presidential level-Georgia for Bill Clinton in 1992, and Louisiana for Bill Clinton in both 1992 and 1996.
2) Mississippi hasn't elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate in the last 61 years.
That man was John Stennis, in 1947. Democratic Gov. Ronnie Musgrove has a chance of unseating the Republican Senate incumbent, Roger Wicker, albeit a slim chance.
3) Seven states with 60 electoral votes have voted Democratic only once since 1964: Alabama, Arizona, Colorado, Mississippi, Montana, North Carolina, and South Carolina. Barack Obama has a chance to carry either Colorado, North Carolina, or both. That would be a political shockwave.
4) Eleven states with 63 electoral votes have not voted Democratic at all since 1964: Alaska, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Utah, Virginia, and Wyoming. As this election begins, Barack Obama is currently competitive in both Virginia and Indiana, which Pres. Bush carried in 2004 by margins of 8.2 and 20.7 percentage points, respectively.
Clearly, in this election season, the only guarantee is that nothing is guaranteed.
U.S. Senate Predictions
My predictions for U.S. Senate results tonight:
Georgia: either a Runoff between Saxby Chambliss the Republican and Jim Martin the Democrat, or a Jim Martin victory.
Maine: Victory for the incumbent Republican, Susan Collins.
Virginia: Victory for the Democrat Mark Warner.
North Carolina: Victory for the Democrat Kay Hagen.
Nebraska: Victory for the Republican Mike Johanns.
Alaska: Victory for the Democrat Mark Begich.
Minnesota: Could go either way, but I expect a victory for Democrat Al Franken.
New Hampshire: I expect a victory for Democrat Jeanne Shaheen.
Colorado: A victory for Democrat Mark Udall.
New Mexico: A victory for Democrat Tom Udall.
Idaho: Victory for Republican Jim Bryse.
Louisiana: Victory for Republican John Kennedy
Good Luck to all the candidates.
Georgia: either a Runoff between Saxby Chambliss the Republican and Jim Martin the Democrat, or a Jim Martin victory.
Maine: Victory for the incumbent Republican, Susan Collins.
Virginia: Victory for the Democrat Mark Warner.
North Carolina: Victory for the Democrat Kay Hagen.
Nebraska: Victory for the Republican Mike Johanns.
Alaska: Victory for the Democrat Mark Begich.
Minnesota: Could go either way, but I expect a victory for Democrat Al Franken.
New Hampshire: I expect a victory for Democrat Jeanne Shaheen.
Colorado: A victory for Democrat Mark Udall.
New Mexico: A victory for Democrat Tom Udall.
Idaho: Victory for Republican Jim Bryse.
Louisiana: Victory for Republican John Kennedy
Good Luck to all the candidates.
Senator Obama Campaigns Ardently in Battleground Cities of Jacksonville, Charlotte, and Manassas
As the last lap approached, Senator Obama closed out his 2008 campaigning in the Bush-Backing Cities of Jacksonville, Florida, Charlotte, NC, and Manassas, VA.
Palin Makes Her Case
As polls prepared for Election Day 2008, Governor Sarah Palin campaigned in Reno, Nevada, another battleground state, telling voters that she can't wait to get to work.
Senator McCain Urges Indiana To Rise Up
Senator John McCain urged Indiana voters to help him continue to serve America as President of the United States, by turning out and voting, and by urging others they know to do so.
Senator Biden Makes Final Push
As America prepared to go to the polls on Election Day 2008, Senator Joe Biden made his final appeal to the voters in Philadelphia, PA in this key battleground state that holds 21 electoral votes.
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